The global used car trade has rotated decisively toward Chinese inventory between 2023 and 2026. Three structural shifts explain why — and what it means for buyers and dealers in the next 12 months.

Shift 1 — EV oversupply at home

China sold 9.5 million NEVs in 2024 alone. As 3-year-old leases roll off and trade-ins flood domestic auction lots, used EV prices have fallen 18% YoY. We are buying 2022 BYD Han EVs at 130k RMB that retailed at 290k new — that's why the export landed prices look so aggressive.

Shift 2 — Currency advantage

The RMB has weakened roughly 6% against the USD basket over 2024–2025. Chinese cars priced in USD by exporters like NDCARS are structurally 5–8% cheaper than 24 months ago at the same domestic RMB price.

Shift 3 — OEM-grade refurbishment

Chinese auction houses now offer factory-spec refurbishment programs. Cars pass through an authorised service centre before going to auction — paint correction, panel realignment, fluid replacement, software update. This wasn't common in 2020; now it's standard for any unit over 60k RMB.

Implications for buyers

Margins available to international buyers are higher than they've been in 5 years. Wholesale margins of 12–18% on Central Asian dealers, 8–14% in the Gulf, 15–25% in Africa. But: competition is rising. Indian and Vietnamese buyers entered the market in 2025.

What we're watching for 2026

  • EU CBAM extending to vehicles — could impact European re-exports from China
  • BYD's own export business growing — pressures used-car margins on certain models
  • Russia's utilization fee changes — directly affects landed cost for our largest market
  • New China-Egypt FTA — could open a North African corridor by end 2026

Conclusion

The Chinese used car export market in 2026 is mature enough to plan against, large enough to scale into and still growing fast enough to reward early movers. The window for outsized margins is open but narrowing — the next 24 months matter.